As Christmas fast approaches, many themes are emphasized all around us. One we encounter in the media and in shopping malls is that winter wonderland. Many watch the classic movie, “White Christmas,” and many more hear the title song in various places. Some parts of the country have a high likelihood of experiencing a white Christmas and some do not. Last month this newsletter discussed a migration of folks from the “White Christmas” parts of our country to the places where it rarely, if ever, is white.
We have seen several great migrations of population within the United States. The first was the westward expansion early in our history. Next came the move from the farm to the city. A lessor migration has been from the city center to suburbs accompanied by an influx of minority populations into the city.
As the big elections are fast approaching, one might wonder how United Methodists are going to vote. The incumbent president is a United Methodist, yet there are obviously millions of United Methodists who will not vote for him.
Some General Agency folks were quick to respond to last month’s issue about how worship can attract new people. They noted that another significant emphasis at the recent School of Congregational Development was on various aspects of discipleship and that a keynote speaker, Dan Glover, had done an exemplary job of describing how to implement a holistic discipleship process in churches.
The most recent School of
Congregational Development just
concluded in Dayton, Ohio, where
several churches have grown
amazingly. Ginghamsburg UMC, which hosted the
event, is known for having grown from 90 people
25 years ago, to having over 4,000 in attendance
today.
The unofficial 2003 membership and attendance statistics for the United Methodist Church have been appearing in the Annual Conference reports and are not encouraging. Membership losses at around 70,000 will seriously exceed the previous year’s decline and attendance losses at over 50,000, will approach the previous year’s steep drop.
Recent issues of this newsletter have commented on the decline of the United Methodist Church in the USA. Specifically, membership has dropped by 25% since the high in the late 60’s, while attendance has dropped by about half of that percentage. Both are declining less rapidly now than in the 70’s and 80’s.
The ongoing decline of the United Methodist Church in the USA can be simply explained by more people dying or leaving the church than are joining. Stemming the decline requires work on both sides of the equation.
Inevitably when United Methodist statistics in the US come up, the yearly decline in membership stands out. Multiple theories and opinions abound to account for this ongoing trend.
Last month’s issue of this letter described the familiar statistics of decline of the United Methodist Church in the USA. This is even more painful since the general population is increasing, in some places dramatically. Congregational development staffers believe that the most effective means of evangelism is starting new churches.
The United Methodist Church (in the USA) has lost members every year since the merger in 1968, and has done so again in the most recent year. Unlike the previous years’ comparison however, both attendance and Church School changes are strongly in the red. Membership declined by over 43,000, nearly identical to the previous period.
Effective planning by churches, as well as districts and annual conferences, requires attention to demographic trends and likely future scenarios. Sometimes, however, it is necessary to look at the very long term as well. One area impacted by such a perspective is planning around issues of urban, suburban, and rural ministries.
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